Aftershock Forecaster

According to the California Earthquake Authority, there is more than a 99% chance that one or more M6.7 or greater earthquakes will strike in California within the next 30 years. Even though we know earthquakes are inevitable, one challenge is that major earthquakes and their resulting aftershocks are uncommon hazard forecasts. Community decision-makers and emergency managers may be less prepared to use aftershock forecasts versus common forecasts like those used for weather-related hazardous events. 

This project aims to develop a PC-based serious game, Aftershock Forecaster, to help train emergency managers to access and utilize U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts to increase risk-reduction activities by local, state, and federal officials to benefit their communities.

The data and scenarios within the serious game integrate information from the U.S. Geological Survey’s HayWired scenario, California earthquake sequences and aftershock forecasts, visualizations of aftershock forecasts, and decision-making use cases for aftershock forecasts.

Aftershock Forecaster is being developed by faculty and students from California State University, Chico’s Media, Entertainment and Technology Experience (METX) collaboration, which includes three academic programs: Computer Animation and Game Development, Journalism and Public Relations, and Media Arts, Design, and Technology. 

This serious game is based upon work supported by the U.S. Geological Survey under Grant/Cooperative Agreement No. G24AC00091-00.

The views and conclusions in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the U.S. Geological Survey. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute their endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.